Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
